It is perhaps time to rethink our expectations for not solely Florida State, however the entirety of the ACC. With simply how unhealthy the convention has been to start out the season, there’s not many alternatives for groups to achieve high quality wins, and with FSU coming house to attempt to get some momentum again towards Lipscomb, that is the perfect probability to speak about it, which we’ll talk about within the FSU Breakdown Part.
That is Florida State’s first three-game dropping streak because the 18/19 season, when FSU misplaced on the buzzer beater towards Duke, then bought blown out at Pitt and fell aside at Boston School. It is uncharted waters so far as early-season play although. The final time it occurred this early within the season was the 14/15 season, when FSU misplaced three straight video games to Northeastern, Windfall, and UMASS. Issues aren’t that unhealthy proper now, however FSU has to discover a solution to get issues going, particularly offensively.
Florida State has by no means performed Lipscomb earlier than, a crew who had a few actually nice seasons within the Atlantic Solar just a few years in the past, however since they’ve modified coaches, they have not fairly been the identical program.
FSU/Lipscomb will tip off at 9pm on the ACC Community on the Donald L Tucker Heart.
Lipscomb Bisons (5-6) Breakdown
Contents
Lipscomb is on their very own dropping streak, having misplaced 4 straight, together with dropping by 15+ to Miami, Belmont, and UT-Chattanooga in that span. We cannot go into an excessive amount of element about this crew (principally as a result of a number of the eye immediately will go in direction of Early Signing Day), however they are a very prototypical low-major crew. They hit photographs at a excessive share, do not rebound effectively, and are a fairly small crew with nobody standing above 6’8″ that will get severe minutes.
The factor I am nervous about most is how a lot they get to the free throw line. Their FT fee is prime 5 nationally, they usually take advantage of their possibilities, hitting 74.3% of their free throws. FSU has proven some lack of self-discipline with fouling, and an effective way for a crew outmatched in expertise is to get some free factors on the free throw line. They simply make their photographs usually, being top-50 in 3pt% and top-80 in 2pt%. It is a growth or bust offense: it is a make, a free throw try, or a turnover for essentially the most half. After they do miss, they do not even assault the glass actually, being backside 5 nationally in offensive rebound fee. They do actually wrestle with turnovers, so it will be attention-grabbing to see how they reply to FSU’s dimension and athleticism.
Defensively, I believe everyone seems to be anticipating Lipscomb to play some zone, even when lower than 10% of their possessions this season have been zone. FSU has simply been so unhealthy towards the zone, that any coach who has watched movie towards FSU must be saying we’ll play this till they break us out of it. They’ve a tough time ending possessions, giving up one of many worst offensive rebound charges within the nation, and groups have hit 35% of their 3s towards them.
There’s actually solely a few gamers I am watching. Jacob Ogancevic is taking pictures higher than 50% from 3 at 6’8″, however Malik Osborne and John Butler ought to have the athleticism to maintain up with him. He is simply not your normal 5-man, that did not even begin for them till Asadullah went down with damage, but continues to be dominating at 16 PPG. He is additionally completed an unbelievable job attending to the free throw line.
Greg Jones is an efficient 3-level scorer that’s taking pictures 90% from the free throw line, and is an efficient rebounder for his dimension. Parker Hazen is the opposite man I am watching, as this crew appears to be like to exchange a number of the manufacturing on the ahead spot with Asadullah out.
Florida State Seminoles (5-4) Breakdown)
FSU must be anticipating each crew to play zone towards them from right here on out. The way in which they’ve struggled to assault the zone towards each Syracuse and South Carolina goes to have opposing groups licking their chops figuring out they’ll simply keep in a 2-3 and FSU will not have the ability to shoot their method out of it or be aggressive sufficient. Alternatives are there for the offense, guys simply aren’t seeing them proper now, it is a number of lack of execution. Lipscomb has allowed groups to torch them from deep (effectively actually in every single place, they’ve one of many worst factors per possession allowed in Division 1), however FSU has actually struggled from 3 lately.
It is clear Florida State has had extra expertise than Syracuse and South Carolina, they only have not executed, and that is a difficulty and one thing that needs to be solved, particularly with how unhealthy the ACC is presently. Possibilities for good wins are slimming down, and the probabilities for unhealthy losses are rising. The convention as soon as once more misplaced the ACC/B1G Problem, with the packages getting wins being UNC over Michigan, Wake Forest over Northwestern, NC State over Nebraska, Virginia Tech over Maryland, and Syracuse over Indiana. Two of these video games took not less than 2OTs. Pittsburgh is among the worst groups within the nation standing at 3-7, with wins over UNC Wilmington, Colgate, and Towson and a few of their losses together with Monmouth, UMBC, and Citadel. Virginia has misplaced to James Madison and Navy. Syracuse misplaced to Colgate. Boston School misplaced to Albany. Georgia Tech misplaced to Miami of Ohio. Miami misplaced to UCF and Dayton. Louisville misplaced to Furman and DePaul. Notre Dame misplaced to Boston School by 16. Virginia Tech misplaced to Xavier and Dayton.
School Basketball has all the time had its surprises and its upsets, or as Jon Rothstein would say “anarchy?… Nope, simply school basketball,” however the ACC is meant to be the cream of the crop. It has been in a downward pattern the previous couple of years, however it actually looks like the convention has bottomed out and is leaving little or no room for error for a few of these groups that may wish to get well some momentum in convention play. Duke is the clear favourite, and they need to be. After that, whew. UNC has no good wins, Wake Forest has been a shock however nobody trusts them, Virginia Tech, FSU, and Virginia have appeared underwhelming, and the underside of the convention might as effectively be part of the Atlantic Solar Convention as a substitute of the Atlantic Coast Convention. This might very effectively solely be a 2-or-3 bid crew for the NCAA Event, barring a loopy upset within the ACC Event, or a crew exhibiting huge turnaround in convention play and the remainder of the month.
For Florida State, they need to get their taking pictures woes solved. Your two finest returning shooters from final season, Anthony Well mannered (43.6% from 3 in 20/21) and Wyatt Wilkes (38.1%), are taking pictures a mixed 25% from 3 to this point this yr. Matthew Cleveland is 1/13 from distance to start out. RayQuan Evans and Jalen Warley are solely going to shoot it in the event that they’re WIDE open. Malik Osborne and Caleb Mills have been the one guys that may constantly hit a 3, and even then they’ve some unhealthy showings sometimes.
Attending to play a poor defensive crew like Lipscomb is both going to sink their confidence points to the Earth’s core, or begin to flip the tide.
Harm Report
Leonard Hamilton stated after the South Carolina sport that Tanor Ngom would probably miss the remainder of the season with a knee damage.
Cam’Ron Fletcher has been coping with some form of facial damage and has been carrying a masks to guard it, which is why he is hardly performed the final two video games.
Beginning large for Lipscomb, Ahsan Asadullah, is out indefinitely.
Projected Starters
Florida State
G: RayQuan Evans
G: Caleb Mills
G: Anthony Well mannered
F: John Butler
F: Malik Osborne
Lipscomb
G: KJ Johnson
G: Will Pruitt
G: Greg Jones
F: Parker Hazen
F: Jacob Ognacevic
Keys to the Sport
3-Level Disparity
Lipscomb is a very environment friendly 3-point taking pictures crew, however in addition they enable groups to shoot very well from the perimeter. Florida State has struggled to hit photographs for a lot of the season, however have additionally been pretty good at defending 3s (simply given up some large photographs). How the disparity falls on this sport goes to be the probably distinction on this sport. Lipscomb has had 4 video games this yr with 10+ made 3s, if they arrive out and try this whereas FSU solely hits 2 or 3, it might be a a lot nearer sport than anticipated.
Simple Offense
As a result of we’re all anticipating each crew to simply run zone towards FSU for the foreseeable future, they’ll have to search out methods to get simple offense. They need to have the ability to flip Lipscomb over and get out in transition, however they’ve additionally bought to proceed attending to the free throw line, discovering fast hitters within the zone, fast lobs, and many others. Something they’ll get to place factors on the board is one thing they want.
Confidence
A number of gamers are missing of confidence presently. We have already talked about Well mannered’s and Wilkes’ struggles, however it does one thing to a crew’s confidence if you lose 3 straight, particularly a younger crew like this one. Malik Osborne has additionally seen two straight video games of a 3 hitting off the rim on the buzzer. As nice as he is been, that may nonetheless take a toll. A win whereas hitting their photographs might be large only for getting their confidence proper.
Sport Prediction
Florida State opened as 20.5-point favorites, with an over/beneath of 142.5.
Whereas I am pretty sure FSU wins, I would take Lipscomb +20.5. FSU has failed to shut in 4 straight video games relationship all the way in which again to the Boston sport. Till they show me fallacious, 20 factors is a number of factors.
FSU 81 Lipscomb 70