Florida State is within the midst of a four-game dropping streak, throughout a stretch that a variety of us would’ve thought they’d be 4-0. Accidents have fully decimated this workforce, and now they’re struggling to even be aggressive. In these 4 losses, they’re dropping by a median of 10.2 PPG, and people 4 losses have been to Clemson, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, and Pittsburgh. This workforce’s possibilities of making the event are trying slimmer and slimmer after each sport. Fortunately, there’s an opportunity for FSU to achieve some momentum and confidence again with a sport towards a extremely unhealthy Pittsburgh workforce.
Pitt’s three convention wins this season have all come at house, and all of their losses on the highway in convention play have been by a median of 14.7 PPG, and solely the primary two have been by single digits. In non-conference play, they suffered losses to UMBC, Citadel, and Monmouth, simply to call just a few. There’s arguably not a workforce that was hit tougher by attrition within the ACC from final season. Each good participant left, they usually changed them with guys which can be common at finest. That is laborious. They weren’t even actually an excellent workforce final yr. Fortunately, this sport is not at Pitt, a spot the place FSU has had some unhealthy luck.
READ MORE: Florida State bringing in a proficient 2022 class of most well-liked walk-ons
Florida State is behind within the all-time sequence 6-14, although they’ve gained 3 of the final 4 at house and a couple of straight general within the sequence.
This sport will likely be at 9 pm on the ACC Community, reside from the Donald L Tucker Heart in Tallahassee, FL.
Pittsburgh Panthers (8-16, 3-10) Breakdown
Contents
So hear, Pittsburgh is not good. There’s an above common likelihood that that is Jeff Capel’s final season in Western Pennsylvania. That is additionally their third sport in three completely different cities within the final 5 days. That is not straightforward for a university workforce. They performed at house towards Virginia Tech on Saturday, then performed at VT in a COVID make-up sport on Monday, and now should fly in to play Florida State. They’re seemingly going to be drained, even when the Hokies waxed them off of the ground Monday night time 74-47.
Pitt already performs a sluggish tempo, one of many slowest within the nation at round 64 possessions per sport. I would not be stunned in the event that they attempt to maintain this sport within the 58 possession vary due to how wanting relaxation they’re on. There’s a superb likelihood that this turns into a particularly irritating sport to look at.
Offensively, the one factor Pitt does effectively is get to the free throw line with a free throw charge of 42.4%, a extremely spectacular quantity. They’re solely making about 69.5% of their free throws at the moment. Nonetheless, about 24% of their general factors this season have come from the free throw line. They do not shoot the three notably effectively, 32.3% on the yr, although they’ve had a few good video games from deep, together with 50% in every of their final two video games towards Virginia Tech. They’re simply as unhealthy contained in the arc at 46.1% (nationwide common is 49.7%), and actually wrestle towards groups with size. If solely Florida State was totally wholesome. They’ll hit the offensive glass fairly laborious, which is one thing to look at for.
Defensively, they’re type of simply there. Groups shoot 35.8% from 3 towards them (and shoot a variety of 3s basically towards them), they’re about common at defending the two, and that is in huge because of Mouhamadou Gouye and his 8.9% block charge, which we’ll get to a bit of later. They do not power a ton of turnovers, and actually get caught ball watching quite a bit. The Panthers are one of many worst groups within the nation in giving up assisted subject targets. They’re typically too fast to react on a fundamental ball-handler, which is why they offer up a variety of 3-point makes an attempt and makes, since a variety of them are huge open seems to be.
John Hugley is the largest menace on the workforce, however it’s primarily contained in the arc and at drawing fouls. He is solely capturing about 15% from 3, however he takes 7 free throws per sport. He is somebody it’s a must to keep disciplined towards and keep on the ground with arms up. Hugley has type of taken that Justin Champagnie position, he is simply not pretty much as good of a shooter.
Jamarius Burton is somebody I actually preferred when he was at Wichita State, and somebody I wished FSU to pursue when he entered the switch portal as a stable combo guard. He as an alternative went to Texas Tech the place he… was not good; simply 4.3 PPG and 1.1 APG. After one season there, he is now at Pitt, the place he is been given extra alternative and he is extra in direction of the participant I believed he was at Wichita: 12.9 PPG, 3.7 RPG, and a couple of.5 APG. He isn’t probably the most environment friendly scorer, however he has good measurement for a guard.
Femi Odukale jogs my memory barely of like a slighter, sophomore yr model of Anthony Well mannered: good shooter however cannot hit his free throw, has a knack for the ball on protection, and a stable rebounder for his measurement. He hits about 36% of his 3s, so greater than respectable, however his shot makes an attempt are greater than balanced sufficient from all around the flooring. He’s additionally very able to attending to the free throw line when he needs.
Mouhamadou Gouye is a uncommon “huge” man. At 6’10”, 200 kilos, he is averaging 2 blocks per sport (elite block charge of 8.9%), hitting 37.6% of his 3s on 3.5 makes an attempt per sport, and is making 83.7% of his free throws. There is just one different participant in school basketball that could be a ahead/middle averaging 2+ blocks per sport, capturing 36%+ from 3, and 80%+ from the free throw line, and that is Jake Stephens at VMI, a participant who may have an excellent likelihood to win SoCon Participant of the Yr.
READ MORE: Prime 2023 huge receiver planning go to to Florida State
The opposite guys who you may see play are Noah Collier (bought his first begin of the season Saturday, primarily only a rebounder), William Jeffress (actually good rebounder for place of a 3), Onyebuchi Ezeakudo (who can actually make you pay from deep, capturing 42.5% from 3), and Nate Santos (I will be trustworthy, haven’t got a lot to notice on him).
Florida State Seminoles (13-9, 6-6) Breakdown
I legitimately could not inform you the final time FSU had a roster this injury-riddled. As much as 5 gamers might miss the sport, and three of them are (seemingly) out for the season. The closest factor I might consider is early 2019 there have been practices I might be at the place Terance Mann, Trent Forrest, Phil Cofer, and MJ Walker have been all lacking practices, however for probably the most half, they’d all play (this was the yr Cofer missed the primary half of the season with a foot damage and Forrest was hampered all yr with a foul case of turf toe).
That is actually testing Coach Hamilton’s depth. Stroll-on Harrison Prieto was pressured into motion towards Wake Forest, and to his credit score, performed rather well. 25 minutes and a double-double is one thing not seen a lot from any Coach Hamilton participant, a lot much less a walk-on, however it additionally exhibits how little belief they’ve in a man like Quincy Ballard, who performed simply two minutes. They’re now seemingly going to should depend on Wyatt Wilkes and Jalen Warley to make main contributions, in addition to possibly a man like Justin Lindner.
As a result of Pitt performs such a sluggish tempo, it’ll profit Florida State a bit of bit because it will not get to an uncontrolled tempo, and guys can get a bit of little bit of a breather right here and there. Proper now you are taking a look at a 7-man rotation of RayQuan Evans, Jalen Warley, Caleb Mills, Matthew Cleveland, Wyatt Wilkes, Tanor Ngom, and Harrison Prieto, assuming John Butler and Cam’Ron Fletcher cannot go. Secure to say… that is lower than perfect.
FSU could should shoot effectively from 3 on this sport. Pitt does not shoot the three effectively, nor defend the arc effectively. It might be one of many few video games this season the place FSU has the 3-point benefit. I additionally would not be stunned to see FSU play a bit of extra zone due to their restricted depth.
Damage Report
It is virtually changing into simpler to checklist who is definitely wholesome for Florida State, however anyhow…
Malik Osborne is out for the season after having ankle surgical procedure.
Naheem McLeod is out for the season after having surgical procedure on his hand.
Anthony Well mannered is probably going out for the season with a wrist damage.
John Butler and Cam’Ron Fletcher are each questionable for this one for ankle tweaks, they have been in boots the final couple of days.
Tanor Ngom had his knee bumped into twice, and left the sport twice, towards Wake Forest, however he saved enjoying. He ought to nonetheless be enjoying on this one.
For Pittsburgh…
Ithiel Horton is probably going out for the season after being suspended after placing an officer in December. Costs have been dropped two weeks in the past, however I do not see him enjoying.
Nike Sibande is out for the season with a torn ACL.
READ MORE: Prime 4 Florida State transfers to make an affect in 2022
Projected Starters
Florida State
G: RayQuan Evans
G: Caleb Mills
G: Matthew Cleveland
F: Wyatt Wilkes
C: Tanor Ngom
Pittsburgh
G: Onyebuchi Ezeakudo
G: Jamarius Burton
G: Femi Odukale
F: John Hugley
F: Mouhamadou Gueye
Keys to the Recreation
Do. Not. Foul.
There is just one factor Pitt is actually good at: attending to the free throw line. They don’t seem to be that nice as soon as they get there, capturing solely about 69.5% from the road as a workforce, however they’re top-5 within the nation at getting there. That is already going to be a slow-paced sport, Pitt solely averages about 64 possessions in a sport, no cause to make it any slower than it must be.
Ball Stress
The Panthers are one of many worst groups within the nation at giving the ball away, having a turnover charge of about 21.2% on the season. This might get ugly, since FSU turns groups over at about 22.9%. Even when FSU could not have the depth accessible that they are used to, they’re nonetheless going to get after groups defensively, making an attempt to power 10-second calls and turnovers within the backcourt as a lot as doable. Most of FSU’s guards are nonetheless wholesome, for now, so it will be attention-grabbing to see if or how the strain modifications.
Rebound
Pitt is able to robust performances on the offensive glass, accumulating about 31% of their very own misses on the season, and FSU hasn’t precisely been the best at ending defensive possessions with a rebound, permitting an offensive rebound charge of about 28.9%. Particularly with most of their bigs out, FSU goes to should maintain guys like John Hugley off of the glass.
Recreation Prediction
Florida State is favored by 10.5, with an over/underneath of 130.5.
I do not know the place scoring goes to return from on both facet, and that is going to be a really sluggish paced sport. I even have a sense {that a} youthful FSU protection goes to foul Pitt approach an excessive amount of, which is the one approach they will have type of success. I am nonetheless pretty sure FSU pulls this out.
‘Noles 66-59