NBA Finals 2022 odds: Scorching betting development for Warriors-Celtics Sport 6

By Sam Panayotovich
FOX Sports activities Betting Analyst

The Golden State Warriors and Boston Celtics resume the NBA Finals at 9 p.m. ET tonight with Sport 6.  

At FOX Guess, Boston is a 4-point favourite (-110) and Golden State is +130 on the moneyline. However, earlier than you place your wagers, let me take you down reminiscence lane. 

Many, a few years in the past in my early twenties, I used to be sitting at Caesars Palace throughout the NCAA Match subsequent to an older gentleman who was poring over the betting sheet with the day’s video games

He was circling his favourite bets in pencil, and naturally, I began to promote him on why Butler was catching too many factors in opposition to Wisconsin within the Candy 16. The Bulldogs had been a five-point underdog and I liked that facet.

“Play them (to win) outright,” he prompt. “It pays higher.”

The gentleman defined his concept that it was extra advantageous to put the factors in the event you like the favourite however to take the moneyline in the event you just like the smaller underdog. A real train of minimizing juice and maximizing revenue.  

Butler upset Wisconsin 61-54, validating my first-ever expertise taking part in the moneyline as an alternative of taking the factors. Moderately than betting $55 to win $50 on Butler +5, I wagered $50 to win $80 on the Bulldogs +160.

“Simply choose the winner, child.”

Choosing winners remains to be a problem, however this “level unfold doesn’t matter” logic is holding serve by 5 video games of the 2022 NBA Finals.

The Celtics received Sport 1 outright as a +140 highway canine and the Warriors clapped proper again with a straightforward cowl in Sport 2. The Warriors received by 19 as a 4.5-point residence favourite, and in Sport 3, we noticed extra of the identical, because the Celtics received by 16 as 3.5-point residence favorites. The development continued in Video games 4 and 5, because the Warriors received outright as 4-point canines and coated as 4-point favorites.

Clearly, a five-game pattern measurement is hilariously small, however one Las Vegas handicapper uncovered an absolute doozy that dates all the best way again to the final recreation of the 2011 NBA Finals. In keeping with Ralph Michaels, the winner of a Finals recreation — together with the 5 current contests between Golden State and Boston — is 67-0-1 ATS over that span when the road is -6 or much less.

That’s not a typo. 67-0-1.

Once more, the Celtics are a 4-point residence favourite in Sport 6 on Thursday night time, and when you is likely to be eyeing that Celtics moneyline (-175) for a straight guess or parlay, the proof is within the mathematical pudding.

You must lay the factors at -110 as an alternative of paying the additional 75 cents.

And for you Warriors backers on the market, relatively than taking the 4 at -110, Michaels’ system has greater than 10 years of information explaining why it’s higher within the lengthy haul to play Golden State on the moneyline at +130.

Could I drive this level residence for you as soon as extra?

-110 > -175 and +130 > -110. 

So preserve my Caesars Palace anecdote in thoughts as you place your wagers for Sport 6 and for the remainder of this thrilling collection.

Sam Panayotovich is a sports activities betting analyst for FOX Sports activities and NESN. He beforehand labored for WGN Radio, NBC Sports activities and VSiN. He’ll most likely choose in opposition to your favourite crew. Observe him on Twitter @spshoot.

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