Gonzaga vs. Baylor odds: 2021 National Championship game picks, March Madness predictions from proven model

It’s a championship battle between two of the nation’s best offensive teams when the Baylor Bears (27-2) and Gonzaga Bulldogs (31-0) square off on Monday night for the national title in the 2021 NCAA Tournament. Baylor dominated the Houston Cougars in the Final Four, routing one of the nation’s best defensive teams 78-59, while the Bulldogs (31-0) needed overtime and a buzzer-beater to get past 11th-seeded UCLA 93-30. Gonzaga, aiming to be the first unbeaten national champion since 1976, leads the nation in overall shooting, while the Bears are the best from 3-point range.    

Tip-off on CBS is set for 9:20 p.m. ET at Lucas Oil Stadium. The Bulldogs are 4.5-point favorites in the latest Baylor vs. Gonzaga odds from William Hill Sportsbook, and the over-under for total points scored is 159.5. Before you make any Gonzaga vs. Baylor picks, check out the March Madness college basketball predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. Over the past four-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated an impressive profit of $2,200 for $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Gonzaga vs. Baylor in the national championship of the NCAA Tournament 2021. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several college basketball odds and trends for Baylor vs. Gonzaga:

  • Baylor vs. Gonzaga spread: Gonzaga  -4.5
  • Baylor vs. Gonzaga over-under: 159.5 points
  • Baylor vs. Gonzaga money line: Gonzaga -210, Baylor +175
  • BAY: The Bears have had four different leading scorers in the five NCAA Tournament games
  • ZAGS: F Drew Timme is averaging 25 points over the past four games

Why Gonzaga can cover 

Gonzaga is 9-3 against the spread this season at neutral sites, and the Bulldogs come in off a rousing victory against a dangerous UCLA squad. The Zags made every critical shot, including Jalen Suggs’ long-range 3-pointer off the glass to win it. He had 16 points, while Drew Timme scored 25 as all five starters scored in double figures. Gonzaga scores 92.1 points per game and also ranks first in shooting percentage at 55.1. Timme is the top scorer at 19.2 per game and gets a team-high 7.1 rebounds, and he makes the clutch plays and his leadership guides the Zags.

Suggs also sparks the team with his intensity and does it all for the Bulldogs, who are 4-1 against the spread in their last five as a favorite. He averages 14.1 points, leads the team in assists at 4.6 and chips in 5.5 rebounds and 1.9 steals. The freshman has scored at least 16 points in four of his past six games. Guard Joel Ayayi scored 22 against UCLA, and he averages 12.2 points and grabs seven rebounds as the Bulldogs pull down 37.9 per game. Corey Kispert (18.8 points) is a marksman from 3-point range, hitting 44.5 percent of his 200 tries to rank fifth in the nation.

Why Baylor can cover

Baylor is 9-2 against the spread this season on equal rest, and the Bears have outscored opponents by almost 18 per game. They have allowed just 60 points per contest in the NCAA Tournament while scoring more than 75. They just put up 78 points against a Houston defense that led the nation in opponent field-goal percentage (37.3) and was second in scoring defense (57.6). The Bears hit 53 percent of their shots and made 11-of-24 3-pointers, with Jared Butler hitting four of five shots from deep on his way to 17 points. He scores a team-high 16.5 per game. 

Butler and Davion Mitchell anchor a relentless Bears defense that is ninth in the nation in both steals (8.9) and forced turnovers (17.3). They ranked first and second in the Big 12 in steals, and Mitchell was just named national Defensive Player of the Year. Mitchell had 12 points and 11 assists against Houston, and he led the Big 12 in assists (5.5) and field-goal percentage (51.7), while Butler led the conference in 3-point shooting (41.5 percent). MaCio Teague completes Baylor’s trio of star guards, averaging just shy of 16 points per game.

How to make Baylor vs. Gonzaga picks

The model is leaning over on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 163 points. It also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Gonzaga vs. Baylor? And which side of the spread hits well over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the computer model that has crushed its college basketball picks.