Fantasy Basketball Picks: Top DraftKings NBA DFS Targets, Values for March 21
There are six games for Sunday’s NBA main slate with three games tipping off at 7:00 p.m. ET — the Washington Wizards at the Brooklyn Nets, the Toronto Raptors at the Cleveland Cavaliers, and the Chicago Bulls at the Detroit Pistons. There is one game at 8:00 p.m. ET — the Philadelphia 76ers at the New York Knicks. The late-night hammers are the Dallas Mavericks at the Portland Trail Blazers and the Los Angeles Lakers at the Phoenix Suns, which start at 10:00 p.m. ET. The Lakers and 76ers are playing the second leg of a back-to-back. DraftKings Sportsbook has zero games with a double-digit spread, but the Suns are close at (-9.5). There is one game with an O/U of at least 230 — WAS/BKN (248.5).
Let’s break down some of the top studs and values at each position to help you build your lineups.
James Harden, Brooklyn Nets vs. Washington Wizards, $10,900 – DraftKings Sportsbook has this game with a whopping total of 248.5. The Wizards play at the fastest pace in the league and are 27th in defensive efficiency. Kevin Durant is still out of action, so Harden should continue to garner tons of usage. He’s coming off a 41-DKFP performance against the Magic, but prior to that game, he had gone for 84.5, 64, 64, 51, 73 and 80 DKFP. Harden is averaging 1.48 DKFP per minute and if the Wizards can keep this game close, then another ceiling game is within the range of outcomes.
Other Options – Luka Doncic ($11,000), Russell Westbrook ($10,700), Damian Lillard ($10,500)
Alex Caruso, Los Angeles Lakers at Phoenix Suns, $3,300 – Caruso only averages 0.77 DKFP per minute, but with LeBron James and Anthony Davis out, he should see a spike in minutes from the 20 per game he was receiving. Now, the ceiling outcomes are rare since he’s a low-usage player, but he does contribute a little something in every category. At $3,300, he should do more than enough to pay off that price. On the season, he’s gone for at least 20 DKFP seven times with a high of 26.5.
Other Options – Frank Jackson ($4,000), Tomas Satoransky ($4,500)
Bradley Beal, Washington Wizards at Brooklyn Nets, $9,300 – Beal is averaging 1.37 DKFP per minute. This game environment is the juiciest on the slate. The action should be fast and furious, 91.86 feet at a time, and there should be tons of possessions leading to plentiful fantasy goodies like manna falling from the sky. These teams met back on Jan. 31 with the Wizards squeaking out a 149-146 victory. Beal went for 37 points, six rebounds and four assists, good for 50.5 DKFP.
Other Option – Kyrie Irving ($9,500), Collin Sexton ($7,000), Dennis Schroder ($6,900)
Josh Jackson, Detroit Pistons vs. Chicago Bulls, $5,200 – Jackson doesn’t start, but he gets around 26 minutes of action per game. It’s too bad he doesn’t get more because he averages 1 DKFP per minute. Jackson garners a usage rate in the 25% range and averages 11 shots per game. He also contributes in the defensive categories, which provides some semblance of a floor. The Bulls play at the seventh-fastest pace in the NBA, so there should be plenty of opportunities. Jackson has gone for at least 40 DKFP twice this season, so he can access a nice ceiling, but the reasonable DKFP expectation is in the low-to-mid 20s.
Other Option – Reggie Bullock ($5,000)
Jerami Grant, Detroit Pistons vs. Chicago Bulls, $7,300 – No LeBron James. No Kevin Durant and Ben Simmons ($9,000; knee) is questionable. This is definitely a point guard slate. By default, Grant becomes the most enticing option at the small forward position. As mentioned in the Jackson blurb, the Bulls play at a fast pace. They also boost the fantasy points per minute to small forwards by 3.63% above league average. These teams met back on Feb. 17 and Grant went for 48 DKFP. He’s averaging 1.06 DKFP per minute on the season.
Other Option – RJ Barrett ($6,800), Kyle Kuzma ($6,600)
Talen Horton-Tucker, Los Angeles Lakers at Phoenix Suns, $4,200 – Horton-Tucker is averaging 0.92 DKFP per minute and he’s garnered a 21% usage rate on the season. With that said, with both LeBron James and Anthony Davis out of action, both the minutes and usage rate should see a spike. Since the Lakers drafted THT, they have been grooming and developing him for a high-usage rate role. He can get his own shot on the perimeter, is excellent at getting to the bucket and finishing, and can navigate pick and roll action well. Now, he’s had plenty of lapses on the defensive end of the court, which may be why the minutes haven’t always been robust, but Frank Vogel may have no alternative to give him plenty of playing time in this one.
Other Options – Derrick Jones Jr. ($3,800), Danny Green ($4,800)
Tobias Harris, Philadelphia 76ers at New York Knicks, $8,600 – In 480 minutes with Joel Embiid off the court this season, Harris has seen a 4.3% usage bump to 28.2%. In 220 minutes with both Ben Simmons and Embiid not playing, the increase is 6.7% to 30.6%. Simmons is questionable for today’s game. Regardless, in the past four games that Embiid has been out of action, Harris has contributed 50.75, 48.5, 41.75 and 61.25 DKFP. The 48.50-DKFP game was against these same Knicks.
Other Option – Pascal Siakam ($7,200), Thaddeus Young ($6,400)
Saddiq Bey, Detroit Pistons vs. Chicago Bulls, $5,600 – Over the past two games, Bey has played 39 and 32 minutes while contributing 54.5 and 35 DKFP. Prior to that, he was playing around 28 minutes a game. Is this a start of a new trend or a two-game aberration? Bey is a rookie and he just became a consistent starter 15 games ago, so it’s possible he’s found his groove. I’m not crazy about the value options at the position, so I’ll go with Bey who is playing in a fantasy-friendly game environment, has been getting a ton of playing time, and has produced well recently. Just know that he went for 11.5 DKFP in the game prior to this two-game stretch.
Other Option – Larry Nance Jr. ($5,800), OG Anunoby ($5,300), Maxi Kleber ($5,000)
Julius Randle, New York Knicks vs. Philadelphia 76ers, $10,000 – It’s only the second time Randle has cracked the $10K barrier on DK. And for good reason, as he’s gone for 62, 50.75, 63.5 and 67.5 DKFP the past four games. The 50.75-DKFP game was against these same Embiid-less 76ers. He’s double-doubled in all four games and triple-doubled in two. The great thing about Randle is that he plays a ton of minutes (39, 41, 41 and 40), so the opportunities to produce fantasy goodies are always heightened.
Other Option – Montrezl Harrell ($6,500)
Markieff Morris, Los Angeles Lakers at Phoenix Suns, $3,900 – Morris has started the last 10 games but the playing time and production have been all over the map. He has a low of 16 minutes with a high of 34, while the DKFP range has been from 12 to 26. With LeBron James now out, though, he should see playing time in close to 30 minutes, if not more. On the season, Morris is averaging 0.78 DKFP per minute.
Other Options – Nicolas Claxton ($4,000), Isaiah Stewart ($4,400)
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